Only 27 percent of business executives have a favorable view of the U.S. economy over the next 12 months, according to the second-quarter AICPA and CIMA Economic Outlook Survey. This figure is down from 67 percent at the end of 2024 and 47 percent last quarter.
The Association of International Certified Professional Accountants (AICPA) and the Chartered Institute of Management Accountants (CIMA) surveyed 328 certified public accountants and chartered global management accountants who hold leadership positions in their companies. The quarterly survey tracks hiring and business-related expectations for the next 12 months.
“We’re seeing a lot of revised expectations: delayed hiring and investment, pared-back expansion plans, lowered key performance indicators,” Tom Hood, Association of International Certified Professional Accountants executive vice president of business engagement and growth, said. “The data shows a clear pivot from optimism to caution. Businesses are bracing for volatility, and the uncertainty around tariffs is amplifying that shift.”
Other key findings:
One in five participants believe the United States already is in a business cycle contraction with 75 percent predicting a recession will be moderate to severe.
Sixty-six percent said their companies were experiencing moderate to significant uncertainty in business planning because of changing tariff schedules.