According to the National Retail Federation (NRF) holiday sales forecast, sales could reach up to $960.4 billion.
Holiday retail sales during November and December are expected to rise between 6 percent and 8 percent above last year to between $942.6 billion and $960.4 billion.
“While consumers are feeling the pressure of inflation and higher prices, and while there is continued stratification with consumer spending and behavior among households at different income levels, consumers remain resilient and continue to engage in commerce,” NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay said. “In the face of these challenges, many households will supplement spending with savings and credit to provide a cushion and result in a positive holiday season.”
Consumers plan to spend $832.84 on average on gifts and holiday items that include decorations and food. The expectation is that online and other non-store sales will rise between 10 percent and 12 percent to between $262.8 billion and $267.6 billion. Officials noted those numbers reflect a rise from $238.9 billion last year.
“This holiday season cycle is anything but typical,” NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz said. “NRF’s holiday forecast takes a number of factors into consideration, but the overall outlook is generally positive as consumer fundamentals continue to support economic activity. Despite record levels of inflation, rising interest rates, and low levels of confidence, consumers have been steadfast in their spending and remain in the driver’s seat.”
The NRF indicated consumer data showed consumers have begun holiday shopping early over the last 10 years to spread out budgets and avoid holiday shopping stress.