Chief economists of the Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association (SIFMA) Economic Advisory Roundtable made their predictions for economic growth in fiscal 2025 and 2026.
The semiannual survey of the chief U.S. economists from over 20 global and regional financial institutions assessed the current economic landscape, tariff policy, inflation and monetary policy, the economic outlook, and more.
The median outlook anticipates economic growth of 1.8% for 2025 and 2.2% for 2026. These are up from earlier projections of 0.9% for 2025 and 1.9% for 2026. Survey participants saw upside risks to growth from lower tariffs, stronger productivity gains and consumer spending. They cited an equity market pullback, rising inflation and a weaker labor market as downside risks.
“The U.S. economic and inflation outlook has improved since our last Economist Roundtable survey, with one-third of participants noting an improved 2026 outlook and recession concerns moderating,” Scott Anderson, co-chair of the SIFMA Economist Roundtable and chief U.S. economist at BMO, said. “A series of trade agreements that lowered the average effective U.S. tariff rate, the absence of retaliation from trading partners, and the continued lift from the AI investment boom and rising equity prices collectively helped blunt the worst-case tariff impacts on spending, inflation, and investment, playing a notable role in this year’s economic outperformance.”
On inflation, respondents estimated core PCE at 2.9 percent in Q4 2025 and 2.5 percent in Q4 2026. The forecasts for annual growth in core CPI is 3.1 percent in 2025 and core CPI 2.8 percent in 2026.
On monetary policy, respondents expect one additional rate cut by year-end 2025. In 2026, 58 percent anticipate at least two more cuts by the end of 2026 with a median Fed Funds estimate of 3.25 percent in Q4 2026.
“Looking ahead to next year, tariff effects are expected to fade into the background as domestic demand and labor-market slack become more important drivers of price pressures,” Anderson said. “The Roundtable expressed caution about future market performance, with more than half of participants anticipating a 10% or greater equity market correction and almost a quarter seeing the possibility of a 20% or greater decline by the end of 2026.”
The semiannual survey compiles the median economic forecast of roundtable members, analyzing expectations for GDP, unemployment, inflation, interest rates and other key indicators. It also reviews expectations for policy moves at upcoming FOMC meetings and discusses key macroeconomic topics and how these factors impact monetary policy.
SIFMA is the leading trade association for broker-dealers, investment banks and asset managers.