Nearly 75 percent of bankers surveyed think the U.S. economy is either in a recession or will enter one within the next year, a new survey found.
The survey from fintech IntraFi asked more than 400 bankers across the country about the economic outlook for the coming 12 months. Nearly three-quarters of them (73 percent) said the U.S. economy is already in a recession or will be within the next 12 months, while nearly four in 10 (39 percent) said they believe a recession will occur in the next six to 12 months, and nearly a quarter (24 percent) said the recession would hit in the next six months.
“Bankers are increasingly nervous that a recession will happen soon,” Mark Jacobsen, CEO and Cofounder of IntraFi, said. “The uncertainty around a number of key economic issues is driving that fear.”
Bankers listed several areas of concern include 52 percent who listed interest rate uncertainty as a concern, 39 percent who predict credit quality deterioration as a concern, and 38 percent who said the possible negative economic impacts from new U.S. tariffs were a concern.
When asked specifically about the impacts of tariffs, 12 percent of the respondents said they will have negative impacts, while 59 percent said they may create moderate challenges for manufacturing, agriculture and retail customers. Nearly a quarter, 22 percent, said the tariffs would have no direct impact or minor impact, while 7 percent said the tariffs will benefit customers by encouraging domestic production.
Respondents also said loan demand is softening; funding costs are decreasing, and deposit competition is holding steady.