In its latest forecast, the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) projects that total commercial and multifamily mortgage borrowing and lending will hold steady in 2022.
MBA now expects approximately $895 billion of total lending in 2022, which is roughly in line with $891 billion in lending in 2021.
“The economic and interest rate outlook has shifted since MBA’s last updated commercial real estate finance (CREF) forecast in February,” Jamie Woodwell, MBA’s vice president for commercial real estate research, said. “The rapid rise in interest rates is expected to take some wind out of the sails of new lending activity, but healthy property fundamentals and strong property values should support the markets and keep commercial real estate mortgage demand at strong levels. Borrowing and lending should still match last year’s record levels.”
MBA expects multifamily lending alone to fall to $418 billion in 2022, down 11 percent from last year’s estimated record of $470 billion. However, MBA anticipates borrowing and lending to grow in 2023, with almost $950 billion of total commercial real estate lending and $442 billion in multifamily lending.
“Multifamily lending is expected to remain robust during the rest of 2022 but is now expected to fall short of 2021’s record-high volumes,” Woodwell added.