Investing in a shifting economic landscape will create both new opportunities and heightened risk, a new report from Wilmington Trust said.
Wilmington Trust released its Capital Markets Forecast (CMF) for 2026 – “Investing in a Period of Economic Experimentation” which gives investors guidance during a period of high tariffs, shrinking labor force and the continued U.S. debt trajectory.
This year’s CMF highlights changes in trade, labor, technology, artificial intelligence and fiscal policy, as well as their push to take the U.S. economy into uncharted territory. Investing in the current landscape will require adaptability, secular analysis and diversification, the report said.
The report focused on three main core economic themes – tariffs and reshoring, the shrinking labor force, and the U.S. debt. Wilmington Trust said it expects slower U.S. economic growth in 2026 – below 1 percent – as tariffs weigh on manufacturing activity, labor supply tightens, and fiscal constraints become more noticeable. At the same time, successful experimentation, the company said, could deliver long-term benefits.
“With multiple large-scale economic experiments underway, the range of potential outcomes for the U.S. economy has widened,” said Tony Roth, Wilmington Trust’s Chief Investment Officer. “Structural changes across trade, labor, technology and fiscal outlooks are reshaping how markets function and how risks are priced. While we remain cautiously optimistic about the U.S. and global economies, successful investing depends less on long-term cyclical patterns and more on disciplined secular analysis, diversification and the ability to adapt as outcomes become clearer over time.”
The report highlighted investment opportunities in Smart Manufacturing, Artificial Intelligence and the U.S. Debt Cycle.
“Periods of economic experimentation demand a thoughtful balance between opportunity and risk,” Roth said. “Rather than attempting to forecast precise outcomes, investors should focus on diversification, active management within less efficient markets and maintaining exposure to quality assets that can navigate a wide range of economic scenarios.”