Total single-family mortgage origination volume is expected to increase to $2.2 trillion in 2026 from $2 trillion, the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) recently announced at its 2025 Annual Convention and Expo.
Next year, refinance originations are expected to increase 9.2 percent to $737 billion and purchase originations are forecasted to increase 7.7 percent to $1.46 trillion. Total mortgage origination volume is expected to increase 7.6 percent by loan count.
“We expect that home sales will increase in 2026,” said Mike Fratantoni, MBA chief economist and senior vice president for research and business development. “The combination of lower mortgage rates and flat home prices has helped affordability conditions improve. While mortgage rates are not expected to decline further, housing supply has increased in recent months, which will ease home-price growth and provide more housing options for prospective buyers. The increase in inventories will put downward pressure on home prices across the country. Home-price declines nationally are expected to decline for several quarters over the next few years.”
Fratantoni expects the U.S. economy to grow at a below-trend rate over the next year.
MBA also updated its forecast for commercial and multifamily originations. Commercial originations are expected to increase 24 percent while multifamily volume is expected to be 16 percent higher than 2025.