The Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association (SIFMA) released the results of its biannual survey of economists on a range of economic issues.
The survey data comes from SIFMA’s Economic Advisory Roundtable, which is comprised of the chief U.S. economists from over 20 global and regional financial institutions.
The survey probes the economists on issues, including the current economic landscape, tariff policy, inflation and monetary policy, the economic outlook, and more.
Among the key findings, the roundtable expects GDP growth to slow to around 0.9 percent in the fourth quarter of 2025 from 2.5 percent in Q4 of 2024. It anticipates the GDP to see 1.9 percent growth in Q4 2026.
“The economy has downshifted sharply since the second half of 2024, as big changes in tariffs, trade policy, immigration, federal tax, and spending policies are taking center stage while the Federal Reserve and monetary policy takes an unfamiliar backseat,” said Scott Anderson, co-chair of the SIFMA Economist Roundtable and Chief U.S. Economist and Managing Director at BMO.
“Until the dust settles – especially around tariff policy and interest rates – the economic and inflation uncertainty they generate will remain a big part of our economic and financial future,” Anderson said. “Although recession risks remain elevated, panelists don’t expect tariffs to reach their heights seen on April 2nd and aren’t likely to trigger an outright recession this year or next.”
On monetary policy, 75 percent of the economists expect one or more rate cuts by the end of 2025 for a total decrease of roughly 50 basis points. The median calls for rates to be at 3.926 percent at the end of 2025 and 3.625 percent at the end of 2026.
Further, core PCE inflation is anticipated to be 3.1 percent at the end of 2025, which is 0.7 percentage points (pps) higher than the last full survey in November 2024 and 0.3 pps higher than the March 2025 flash poll. The top factors influencing forecasts for core inflation estimates are trade policy, inflation expectations, and growth in domestic demand.
Further, more than 70 percent of economists say the probability of recession is between 30 percent to 50 percent. The top factors impacting U.S. economic growth are trade policy, labor market developments, and monetary policy.