The Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association’s (SIFMA) Economist Council released its semiannual survey findings Tuesday, projecting fourth quarter GDP growth of 2.2% for 2026 before easing to 2.0% in 2027.
The SIFMA Economist Council is comprised of U.S. economists from more than 30 global and regional financial institutions, and its survey assesses the current economic landscape for inflation, labor markets, monetary policy and more. The survey found that the median outlook for 4Q/4Q growth in the association’s H1 2026 forecast stands at 2.2 percent, unchanged from the H2 2025 forecast.
“The U.S. economic outlook has remained remarkably stable since our last survey despite rapidly evolving shocks and underlying structural changes,” said Scott Anderson, Managing Director and Chief U.S. Economist at BMO Capital Markets and Co-Chair of the SIFMA Economist Council. “The overall GDP growth outlook for 2026 remains resilient, but uneven, as robust AI-driven business investment overshadows consumers contending with slower job growth, deteriorating real disposable income growth, and diminished personal savings.”
Anderson said 61 percent of the respondents reported an elevated chance of a negative quarter of GDP growth over the coming year, because of the level of uncertainty that exists in the economic outlook. However, he said, the Economist Council generally predicts a robust and resilient U.S. economic and labor market through 2027, running at or slightly above its potential even as AI investments, equity valuations, productivity and labor markets, equity valuations, productivity, and labor market continue to loom over projections.
Survey respondents saw upside risks to growth from AI-related CapEx, as well as a pullback in energy prices and increased consumer spending. However, downside risks included an AI investment corrections, an escalation of geopolitical risks, and an increase in energy prices.
Nearly 90 percent of the respondents saw inflation expectations staying anchored, and no cuts to the Fed’s policy rate in 2026. The majority predicted one to two cuts in 2027. Nearly two thirds of respondents believe a Fed hike that ends the equity market rally and causes long-end borrowing rates will pose a greater risk than will no Fed hike leading to accelerating inflation.