Jobs in Texas will increase 1.7 percent in 2025, according to the Texas Employment Forecast released by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
The forecast is down from the 2 percent growth forecasted last month, officials said. The bank said there is an 80 percent confidence band in a projection of 1.3 to 2.1 percent. The forecast is based on an average of four models that include projected national GDP, oil futures prices, and the Texas and U.S. leading indexes.
“Employment fell in June for the first time in a year, with the state losing 15,500 jobs,” Jesus Cañas, Dallas Fed senior business economist, said. “With the slowing, job growth in the first half of 2025 now stands at 1.8 percent, just below its long-term trend of 2.0 percent. June declines were largely broad based across sectors, led by cuts in the oil and gas and professional business services sectors. The only sectors that added jobs last month were information services, education and health, and government. Additionally, employment fell in all major Texas metros except for San Antonio.”
The forecast also suggests that 244,600 jobs will be added in the state this year, and that employment at the end of the year will be 14.5 million. Employment declined by an annualized 1.3 percent in June after seeing a 2.1 percent growth rate in May.
The unemployment rate decreased in Austin–Round Rock, Brownsville–Harlingen, Dallas–Plano–Irving, El Paso, Fort Worth–Arlington, Houston–The Woodlands–Sugar Land, Laredo, San Antonio–New Braunfels, the report said based on seasonally adjusted numbers from the Dallas Fed. Statewide the unemployment rate fell to 4.0 percent in June.