The RSM US Middle Market Business Index rose in the fourth quarter amid rising revenues and earnings and reflects growing optimism among middle market firms, even as attitudes on the general economy remain sour, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce said on Dec. 16.
The index rose 8.2 points to 131.5 on a seasonally adjusted basis from123.3 in the prior period.
Data from the survey of more than 400 middle market firms, presented by RSM US LLP in partnership with the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, indicates the economy has experienced a moderate acceleration as middle market firms prepare for an environment of eased regulations, tax cuts, the retroactive full expensing of capital expenditures and lower interest rates.
“This year has been characterized by twin policy shocks related to immigration and trade, yet the pop in the topline index points to a slight reacceleration as we close out 2025,” Joe Brusuelas, chief economist with RSM US LLP, said. “Growth continues even as inflation persists, and retroactive full expensing should support further investment in the middle market. The first half of next year will show whether that momentum builds as firms benefit from expensing their capital outlays and other policy changes.”
Fifty-two percent of the respondents reported an increase in general revenue in the fourth quarter and 58 percent said they expect revenues to rise even further over the next six months. Half of all respondents reported higher new earning, while 56 percent said they expect that trend to continue into the first half of 2026.
However, despite optimism over revenues and earnings, respondents had subdued views on the economy. A little over a third (38 percent) said the economy improved in the current quarter, and 36 percent said it had deteriorated. Looking to the next six months, 46 percent said they expect the economy to improve, while 32 percent said they anticipate it will weaken.