Some 4.74 million homes are forecast to be sold in 2025, down slightly from last month’s forecast of 4.85 million units, according to the August 2025 Economic and Housing Outlook from the Fannie Mae Economic and Strategic Research (ESR) Group.
The ESR Group projects existing home sales will total 4.09 million units in 2025, compared to the 4.06 million units recorded in 2024. Further, mortgage rates are expected to end 2025 and 2026 at 6.5 percent and 6.1 percent, respectively. This is revised upward compared to the July forecast for rates to be at 6.4 percent in 2025 and 6.0 percent in 2026.
Looking ahead to 2026 home sales, the group expects sales to reach 5.23 million, which is lower than the previous projection of 5.35 million.
In addition, mortgage originations are expected to rise to $1.85 trillion and $2.26 trillion, respectively, for 2025 and 2026. The previous forecast called for originations to be $1.92 trillion and $2.34 trillion, respectively.
Fannie Mae’s Economic and Strategic Research Group is led by Chief Economist Mark Palim. The group studies current data, analyzes historical and emerging trends, and conducts surveys of consumers and mortgage lenders to inform forecasts and analyses on the economy, housing, and mortgage markets.